Identifying plausible historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes: the case for the Dead Sea during the last 2 millennia

Abstract. Studies of seismicity induced by water level changes in reservoirs and lakes focus typically on well-documented contemporary records. Can such interactions be explored a historical timescale when the two data types suffer from severe uncertainties stemming different nature data, methods resolution? In this study, we show way to considerably improve correlation between interpolated records Dead Sea reconstructions discrete patterns area, over period past 2 millennia. Inspired results our previous carefully revise earthquake catalog exclude remote earthquakes include small local events. For addressing lake levels, generate an ensemble random interpolations curves rank them with seismic stress release. We compute synthetic earthquakes, applying Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion. The critical state at hypocentral depths is achieved static poroelastic deformations incorporating change effective normal (due best-fit curve) superimposed regional strike-slip tectonic deformations. impressive agreement documented have damaged Jerusalem. refine searching for events that toppled houses Jerusalem; including all improves levels. demonstrate first time high recorded recurrence intervals earthquakes.